The Future of Trump and the Republicans: Victory or-Collapse?

Introduction
In previous articles, I discussed the economic repercussions of the tariffs imposed by Trump on global trade. Today, I examine how Trump s policies and decisions are shaping the political landscape. Since the beginning of Donald Trump s second presidential term, American politics has undergone radical shifts, marked by a series of controversial decisions, including:

Imposing tariffs on global trade
Deepening involvement in the Yemen war
Threatening Iran with nuclear war

These actions have sparked fierce criticism both domestically and internationally, raising questions about the future of the Republican Party. Will these policies strengthen its popularity´or weaken its standing?

1. Tariffs: An Economic War That Threatens His Support

Trump imposed a series of tariffs on imports from China, the EU, and even traditional U.S. allies, claiming they would protect the American economy. However, the results have been mixed:

Negative impact on American farmers and manufacturers reliant on exports, angering voters in agricultural states.
Strong international backlash from China and Europe, escalating global trade tensions.
Division within the Republican Party, with some members expressing concerns over his economic policies.
If this policy continues, the GOP risks losing its core electoral base, especially if economic crises worsen.

2. The War in Yemen: Fragile Alliances and Human Rights Criticism

During his first term, Trump supported Saudi Arabia s war in Yemen, leading to the world s worst humanitarian crisis (UN reports). This stance faced sharp criticism due to:
Endorsing human rights violations against Yemeni civilians.
Congressional opposition to unchecked arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
Growing pressure from human rights organizations and left wing activists demanding an end to U.S. support.

Now, with his second term escalation in Yemen, these policies could weaken Republican appeal among liberal and independent voters opposed to foreign wars.

3. Threatening Iran with Nuclear War: Escalation Risks

Trump s aggressive stance against Iran withdrawing from the nuclear deal, assassinating Qasem Soleimani, and threatening nuclear war has raised fears of a large scale conflict. The consequences include:
Destabilizing the Middle East, potentially spiking oil prices and harming the global economy.
Domestic criticism from Democrats and even some Republicans who view his policies as increasing security risks.
Electoral repercussions: If war with Iran erupts, Republicans could lose votes from antiwar voters.

4. Trump and the GOP s Future: Victory´or Collapse?

Trump relies on a populist nationalist rhetoric to rally his base, but he risks:
Losing international support due to unilateral policies.
Eroding his popularity if economic and military crises escalate.
Facing a fierce electoral challenge from Democrats, especially if they highlight his failure to ensure global stability.

Conclusion
The political future of Trump and the Republican Party is at stake. While he doubles down on hard line policies, economic and military challenges could undermine the GOP s chances of securing another term. The upcoming elections will be a decisive test of whether Americans and the world will accept a strategy built on confrontation and brinkmanship.

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