Specters of Influence and the Mirage of Power: Iran and Iraq in the Maze of Geopolitical Transformations

In the heart of the violent upheavals that buffet the region’s very body, Iran emerges as an entity oscillating between the zenith of influence and the brink of collapse. In the aftermath of the October Seventh attacks—a political earthquake that reshaped the map of alliances and conflicts—Tehran found itself transformed from a predator into prey. Since the onset of the Arab Spring in 2011, Iran had masterfully clutched the strings of regional affairs, from Lebanon to Yemen, traversing Syria and Iraq. Yet today, it seems that the winds of history have reversed its course, sweeping it toward the margins of geopolitics, its sphere of influence receding from the Mediterranean to the fringes of the Syrian-Iraqi border.

Popular Mobilization Forces: Between the Iranian Hammer and the Iraqi Anvil
Within this complex tableau, the “Popular Mobilization Forces” rise as the most pivotal piece in Tehran’s chess game over Iraq. This entity, embodying contradictions in their most vivid form, acts as a mirror reflecting the duality of Iraqi identity—torn between national loyalty and ideological subservience. On one hand, it is the legitimate offspring of the war against terrorism-;- on the other, it serves as Tehran’s instrument to impose its will. Yet, one must ask: can this formation maintain its cohesion amidst the storm?

The Mobilization Forces are not a monolithic block but rather a mosaic of militias—some bound to Iran by ties of blood, others viewing it merely as a tactical ally. Since 2018, when the forces stepped into the labyrinth of formal politics, they have become an integral part of the system, bearing material and power-related interests they dread losing. The true crisis, however, lies in the underlying fissure between their leadership and Iran, especially after the assassinations of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in 2020, which exposed the fragility of an alliance built on “conditional loyalty.” If Tehran could discard figures like Soleimani and Hassan Nasrallah, what then guarantees that it will not abandon the Mobilization Forces when crises intensify?

Iraq: The Final Battlefield
Iraq today is witnessing a profound transformation—not merely in the recalibration of power dynamics but also in the collective consciousness of its people. A wave of normalization with neighboring states and ambitious economic projects like the “Development Road” are steering the country toward less reliance on Iran. Still, Tehran clutches potent cards, foremost among them a network of entrenched relations with political and military elites cultivated over decades, complemented by its control over key economic arteries through energy gateways and smuggling routes.
Yet, the pressure from Washington grows ever fiercer. The Trump administration, ever hinting at the prospect of a “limited war,” has been pushing for the dismantling of the Popular Mobilization Forces by absorbing them into the Iraqi army—a plan that on paper appears ideal but collides with the reality of the forces’ continued necessity as a security bulwark against threats like ISIS. This brings forth the pivotal question: Can Iraq transform into a -dir-ect battleground between Washington and Tehran? The answer rests upon the fragile equilibrium that the country’s leadership—like that of a prudent prime minister—struggles to maintain between the American hammer and the anvil of Iranian dominance.

Iran: From Overstepping Boundaries to the Brink of Ruin
Iran has long adopted a “frontline” strategy, regarding its neighboring states as extensions of its own national security. Yet today, those frontiers seem to retreat beyond Syria, even as Tehran grapples with existential challenges both internally and externally. Economic sanctions, domestic protests, and the waning influence of its proxies in Lebanon and Yemen combine to force a profound reappraisal of its calculations.
Nevertheless, Iraq remains the last bastion-;- its loss would mean the exposure of Iranian frontiers to -dir-e, unmitigated threats. Accordingly, despite its evident frailties, Tehran will not relinquish Iraq with ease. It also recognizes, however, that imposing absolute dominance has become an impossible feat amid the rising Iraqi awakening against external subjugation.

Conclusion: The Region at a Crossroads
Today’s picture is one of a regional order in constant formation. Iran, once the architect of the “Shiite crescent,” now finds itself on the defensive for its very survival. Meanwhile, Iraq—long tormented by its role as a battleground—seeks to redefine its identity amid this swirling geopolitical storm.
The ultimate question remains: Will the regional and international powers succeed in redrawing the map without Iran?´-or-will Tehran, renowned for its ability to turn defeats into victories, forge a new path to reassert itself as a central player? As is the case with all things in this intricate region, the answer is neither black nor white-;- it is a spectrum of shifting grays, subject to the balance of power and the cunning of its actors.

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