Trump In Saudi Arabia: A Showdownor-a New Plot!

Trump In Saudi Arabia: A Showdown´-or-a New Plot!
Abbas J. Ali
Recently, President Trump announced that within six weeks he would visit Saudi Arabia. He has two primary objectives. The first is to sign a --$--1 trillion deal with the Kingdom to buy American made weapons and other goods. The second is to force the Kingdom to normalize relations with the arch enemy of the Arab people, Israel. These goals are interrelated and will further weaken the Arab and Muslim cause, while opening new opportunities for further escalating the downfall of the Arab and Islamic culture.
Trump is a shrewd businessman whose dealings with counterparts is driven by immediate and tangible benefits and by his perception of whether they are powerful´-or-weak. These two considerations were articulated in his announcement pertaining to which country he would visit. During his first foreign trip in 2017, he chose to visit Saudi Arabia, rather than making the typical first trip to the UK, because they agreed to sign an agreement whereas the Kingdom would invest --$--350 billion in the U.S. This time, Trump asserted, Saudi Arabia must invest more in order for him to visit the Kingdom stating, "If Saudi Arabia wanted to buy another --$--450 billion´-or---$--500 - we ll up it for all the inflation - I think I d probably go." The Crown Prince, Mohamed bin Salman (MBS), offered more with the Kingdom announcing, "The crown prince affirmed the kingdom s intention to broaden its investments and trade with the United States over the next four years, in the amount of --$--600 billion, and potentially beyond that. "Trump seized on this offer and demanded the amount be increased to at least --$--1 trillion for him to visit the Kingdom declaring, “I said I ll go if you pay --$--1 trillion to American companies, meaning the purchase over a four-year period of --$--1 trillion and they ve agreed to do that. So, I m going to be going there.”
In his first term, Trump coordinated business affairs with Crown Prince MBS. One of his most fruitful ventures was Saudi Arab lending --$--2 billion to Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners (New York Times, April 10, 2022). Previously, Kushner, as a senior advisor to Trump and his son-in-law, provided the Crown Prince with a U.S. classified intelligence list of his domestic enemies. Those on the list were rounded up and imprisoned (New York Magazine, March 22, 2018). The rise of MBS and the jailing of his cousin, Mohamed Bin Nayef, the crown prince, and first deputy prime minister prompted Trump to declare, “We ve put our man on top!”(The Intercept, January 4, 2018).
For this very reason, MBS was willing to normalize relations with Israel and hoped to get a commitment from Washington and Tel Aviv to secure his power. He also wished to sign a bilateral defense agreement to ensure the survivability of the ruling family. The election of Biden and the event of October 7, 2023, while weakening the resistance and progressive Arab forces, however substantially increased the risk for MBS to publicly endorse normalization with Israel at this time. Nevertheless, in his coming visit to the Kingdom, Trump will push for normalization sooner than later.
Knowing that Trump does not easily change his mind and, in the end, he has to answer to Netanyahu, MBS is placed in an awkward position. In fact, for him this is a nightmare that has deepened his insecurities and is a source of unease in his relations with regional and international actors. Domestically, he has powerful members of the ruling family who question the wisdom of complete submission to Washington. Additionally, there is the formidable religious establishment which, occasionally, is difficult to silence.
MBS knows too that Trump has in the U.S. political supporters who glorify him. There is also Trump’s inner circle which primarily encompasses extreme Evangelical Christians and right-wing Jews. These groups have persuaded him that God has sent him to save Israel. This notion appeals to his simplistic mind, and he has come to believe that he is a man with a divine mission who speaks God’s words.
These contradictory stances, a businessman who is obsessed with making deals and a man with a divine mission makes him unpredictable and at the same time irritable and cheerful, angry and accommodating. When he senses that his counterparts are out to outmaneuver him, though they lack power, he retaliates swiftly. Only those who are articulate and are perceived to have power are respected.
There are two possibilities that will arise in his visit to Saudi Arabi: either Trump pressures MBS to officially declare a relationship with Israel without a just and comprehensive Middle East peace,´-or-MBS is able to persuade Trump to further change the political landscape in the region by attacking Iran and then dismantling Iraq. Both possibilities are on the table and neither one is workable. Nor do they address the Palestinian issue and the occupation of Arab land.
The first possibility is that Trump will act like a man with a divine mission who has been chosen to enforce God’s will and design for the region. Under this option, the Palestinians will lose everything and the West Bank and Gaza will be given to colonial settlers. Those who object will be taught a lesson that they will never forget. It will include bloodshed, the destruction of property, and comprise of the complete disregard for human rights and the international law.
The second possibility is that MBS offers Trump a solution that is based on three pillars: Saudi economic resources will be put in the service of Washington--;-- Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf States will help Tel Aviv and Washington attack Iran and will violently change the political landscape in Iraq in line with the Israeli design--;-- and Palestinians will be forced to abandon their homes and live in exile.
Though Trump prefers the first option, MBS will highlight that the second option is less costly and he will underscore in detail the historic role of the Kingdom in serving Washington’s design for the region, including inciting sectarianism, defeating Arab liberal and progressive movements, encouraging radical Islamic ideologies, derailing any Arab plans to deal with Israel threats, changing the regime in Libya, Syria, Egypt, and Sudan, and paralyzing Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. These are achievements that that MBS will highlight in his conversation with Trump.
It is difficult to predict which option Trump will choose. The first is a showdown with Saudi Arabia that might jeopardize his future business in the region and destabilize Saudi Arabia. The option, however, will please Evangelical Christians. The second will ensure chaos and catastrophe and weaken the region for years to come. Both options optimize Israeli interests, and Netanyahu will be pleased with either approach. The cost for the Arab people will be exceedingly high in terms of destruction and bloodshed.
In fact, in the absence of sound leadership in Washington and the Arab World, there appear to be no counterforces to prevent the collapse of the political order in the region. The Middle East is entering a dark era as the forces of extremism in Washington dictate the fates of over 400 million in the region. This dark and bloody era will be the hallmark of Trump’s legacy and inaugurate the beginning of the end of the Saudi regime.

Abbas J. Ali is a Distinguished University Professor, IUP.

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