The Methodology of the New Syrian Authority: A Shift in Stance´-or-a Reproduction of Extremism?

The Methodology of the New Syrian Authority: A Shift in Stance´-or-a Reproduction of Extremism?
Kawa Nader Qa-dir-
Amid the major transformations occurring on the Syrian stage, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) remains at the center of attention, with its leader, Mohammad al-Jolani, as one of the most controversial figures. Al-Jolani, who began his journey within Islamist jihadi organizations and later led HTS, today represents a model of tactical change rather than ideological transformation. The pressing question is: Will al-Jolani shed his mantle of extremist ideology and rebrand himself as a pragmatic political leader,´-or-will he remain shackled by his jihadi roots?

The Legacy of the Past: Extremism and a Bloody Record
Al-Jolani built his reputation through his association with al-Qaeda, relying on an extremist ideology rooted in violence and domination. At the height of “Jabhat al-Nusra s” power, the group carried out brutal military operations and controlled vast areas in northern Syria, leveraging a radical religious discourse to justify its actions.
This bloody legacy and a history rife with internal and external conflicts turned al-Jolani into a symbol of terrorism for many regional and international actors. However, military and political changes have forced him and his organization to reevaluate their strategies, manifesting in attempts to portray HTS as a local force with a Syrian agenda rather than a transnational jihadi entity.

The "New" Al-Jolani: Tactical Maneuver´-or-Strategic Shift?
In recent years, al-Jolani has sought to -alter-his public image, presenting himself as a local leader aiming to improve security and economic conditions in Idlib while emphasizing a less radical rhetoric. These transformations have included:
1. Public Disassociation from al-Qaeda: HTS announced its disassociation from al-Qaeda, a move described as pragmatic, aimed at avoiding international targeting and gaining broader acceptance.
2. Attempts to Improve International Relations: Efforts have emerged to present HTS as an acceptable alternative in Idlib, especially amid the collapse of traditional opposition forces.
3. Local Governance in Idlib: HTS has established civilian administrations in its controlled areas, attempting to demonstrate its capacity to govern and address the needs of the local population.
Nevertheless, the question remains: Do these shifts reflect genuine ideological changes,´-or-are they merely temporary tactics to survive mounting local and international pressures?

Persistent Extremism: Worrying Signs
Despite the apparent changes, many indications suggest that extremist thought remains deeply entrenched in al-Jolani’s policies and those of HTS:
1. Internal Repression: HTS continues to suppress internal dissent, including arresting activists and journalists who criticize its rule.
2. Religious Conservatism: While its public rhetoric has softened, the group still imposes strict religious rules in the areas it controls.
3. Ties with Jihadi Factions: HTS has not completely severed its relations with other jihadi groups, fueling doubts about its true intentions.

Al-Jolani’s Test: Future Choices
Al-Jolani now faces a critical test: either he genuinely transforms into a local political leader capable of steering Idlib toward relative stability,´-or-he remains tied to his old ideology, leading to continued international isolation and a likely escalation of conflict against him.
1. True Transformation:
To gain regional and international recognition, al-Jolani must make real concessions, including:
• Engaging in a comprehensive political process within a unified Syrian framework.
• Severing all ties with transnational ideologies.
• Ensuring civil liberties in the areas under his control.
2. Persisting in the Old Path:
If al-Jolani continues his current trajectory without substantial ideological and political changes, he risks further military targeting by both the Syrian regime and the international community. Such a path may ultimately lead to the collapse of his entire project.
Caught in a delicate position, al-Jolani seeks U.S. recognition of his rule and removal from terrorist lists while navigating the Western and Israeli demands tied to his precarious status within the jihadist sphere. Though he may receive praise for contributing to weakening the Assad regime and expelling Iranian militias, he faces intense criticism from within al-Qaeda and ISIS. These groups accuse him of hypocrisy, apostasy, weak faith, and betrayal for failing to fulfill promises of shifting the fight from the “near enemy” (Assad’s regime) to the “far enemy” (Israel), and for compromising with the Western bloc.

Conclusion
The future of Mohammad al-Jolani and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham hinges on the decisions they make in the coming phase. Transforming from a jihadi leader to a genuine local leader requires courage to break free from old ideological constraints, which has yet to be demonstrated.
Until then, Idlib and its fate will remain hostage to a struggle between the legacies of the past and the demands of the present, oscillating between proclaimed moderation and a deeply entrenched extremist reality.

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