The Kurdish Future in Rojava: Navigating the Challenges of the Escalating Israel-Syria Conflict Kawa Nader Qader

The Kurdish Future in Rojava: Navigating the Challenges of the Escalating Israel-Syria Conflict
Kawa Nader Qader
If the military conflict between Israel and Syria escalates into a full-scale war, the Kurds in Rojava, through the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), will face numerous challenges and opportunities. These opportunities will depend on their political positions, military alliances, and the complex regional and international interests the at play.
Securing Kurdish regions and protecting strategic areas
In the event of an escalation between Israel and Syria, the top priority for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will be to secure regions they control from the threat of Turkish attack, particularly resource-rich areas like the oil fields in Rojava. These fields are concentrated in the provinces of Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor, including strategic fields such as "Rmelan, Suwayda, Shaddadi, Jabsa, Hol, and Yusfiya," as well as fields in Deir ez-Zor, such as "Omar, Tanak, Tim, and Ward." These areas serve as the primary source of income for the Kurdish regions, producing about 380,000 barrels per day. They represent the economic heart of Rojava (the autonomous administration), and any threat could significantly impact the SDF s ability to maintain autonomy and manage its resources independently, especially if there are attempts by the Syrian regime´-or-Israel to control them. Therefore, the SDF will make every effort to secure these resource-rich areas in the event of escalation.
Facing shared threats
Iran’s presence in Syria poses a -dir-ect threat not only to Israel but also to the SDF, which views Iranian influence as a threat to its political future in the region. The SDF has strongly opposed Iran’s expansion in Syria, which is also a shared threat for Israel. If military escalation against the Syrian regime continues, the SDF might find itself in a position to cooperate with Israel against Iranian influence. However, cooperation with Israel will be subject to international positions and might remain informal´-or-limited to intelligence coordination, especially against Hezbollah when it poses a -dir-ect threat to security in the northeastern regions (Rojava).
Countering Extremist Groups
The SDF, which has been on the front lines in the fight against ISIS, may find itself in informal coordination with Israel via the international coalition if threats from extremist groups arise in its territories. Although -dir-ect military cooperation between the SDF and Israel is unlikely, both parties have been involved in combating jihadist organizations such as ISIS in the region. In this context, the two sides may cooperate in a-limit-ed capacity, particularly in addressing security threats that affect their shared interests.
Turkey’s Role
Given that Turkey represents a significant threat to the Kurdish presence in the region, there are growing concerns about the possibility of an attack on Rojava in the event of military escalation between Israel and Syria. Despite Turkish officials claiming they are ready for negotiations with the Kurds, the co-chair of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Autonomous Administration of Rojava, Ilham Ahmad, has emphasized that negotiations occur through mediators, not -dir-ectly with Turkey.
Military and political alliances
The United States is a key ally for both the SDF and Israel in the fight against ISIS and other extremist forces. If a conflict breaks out between Israel and Syria, the U.S. may play a role in facilitating cooperation between the two sides. The SDF may see cooperation with Israel as beneficial, especially in securing American support and advancing its interests in the region. On the other hand, Russia, a key ally of the Syrian regime, could oppose any cooperation between the SDF and Israel if it perceives that it threatens its interests in Syria. Consequently, the SDF s stance on this cooperation will depend on Russia’s position, which, along with China, prefers to maintain stability for the Syrian regime.
The Quest for Autonomy´-or-Independence
The SDF will make every effort to maintain the autonomy´-or-independence of the areas it controls. In the event of a full-scale war between Israel and Syria, the SDF may feel compelled to seek international allies to achieve its political goals, including strengthening relations with Israel if those relationships serve its security interests. However, the SDF may remain cautious about -dir-ectly engaging in the conflict with the Syrian regime while striving to maintain stability in its regions and protect them from military escalation.
Conclusion
If a full-scale military escalation occurs between Israel and Syria, the SDF will find itself in a complex position. On one hand, it will seek to protect its resource-rich areas, such as oil fields in northeastern Syria. On the other hand, it may find itself compelled to cooperate with Israel on certain security issues, such as countering Iranian influence´-or-combating extremist groups. Ultimately, the SDF’s stance will depend on its regional and international alliances, particularly with the United States, and the position of Russia regarding the situation in Syria. The main focus of the SDF will be on ensuring the stability of its regions and avoiding -dir-ect involvement in an open conflict, while seizing any opportunity to enhance its international relations in ways that serve its security and political interests.
November 28, 2024

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