Prospects for northeastern Syria

For a month, a number of Arab and Turkish media did not stop speculation about a possible offensive by the Turkish Armed Forces in northeastern Syria. An indicator of these plans is considered the decision of the parliament on October 26 this year. to extend for two years the permit for the use of the country s armed forces abroad. According to Turkish pro-government media, the operation in Syria is almost a done deal. The command staff of the Syrian National Army were summoned to Ankara to discuss the "tactics and strategy of the fourth military operation in Syria," which is supposed to involve 35 thousand people.
Yeni Shafak reported that the operation could target Tell Rifaat and Manbij in the northern part of Aleppo province and Ain Issa and Tel Tamer east of the Euphrates. Perhaps the military operation will last until Kobane on the Syrian-Turkish border in order to cut communications between Qamishli and Manbij and connect territories controlled by pro-Turkish armed formations. One of these territories with the settlements of Ras al-Ain and Tell-Abyad was captured during Operation Peace Spring, and the other, with the Jarablus-Aazaz-Al-Bab triangle, was captured during Operation Euphrates Shield. According to Bloomberg, the goal is to seize territories south of the city of Kobane (Ain al-Arab) in order to unite territories to the west and east of the Euphrates, already under Turkish control.
At the same time, military activity of a different kind indicates the possibility of a new military operation in the northeast. Since October 22, Turkey has been deploying armored vehicles to the Tell Abyad area. The third Turkish military operation in the "Peace Spring" in SAR, carried out in 2020, ended before Turkish troops occupied Ain Issa and Tell Tamer in accordance with the ceasefire agreements concluded by Ankara with Moscow and Washington. Today s activity in the Tell Abyad area may also affect Ain Issa.
A serious obstacle to the implementation of the Turkish plans is the negative reaction to them (for various reasons) from Russia and the United States. The Russian leadership believes that Moscow has already made concessions to Turkey, allowing three military operations to be carried out in northern Syria and creating a security belt from possible hostile actions by the Syrian Kurds associated with the PKK. The territories that are currently under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces are to come under Syrian sovereignty. The US Democratic Administration is determined to continue the alliance with the Syrian Kurds and does not give the NATO ally the go-ahead to occupy new areas in the SAR. This was made clear to President Erdogan by Joseph Biden during a meeting at the G20 summit in Rome.
In this sense, the interview given by the commander of the military forces of the SDF and the Rojava Federation Mazlum Kobane to Al-Monitor on November 10 clarifies a lot. When asked by journalist Amberlin Zaman about the possibility of a Turkish offensive, M. Kobane replied that now the Turks will not be able to do it as easily as they did in 2018 and 2019. At that time, Ankara was not yet bound by agreements with Russia and the United States. There is currently an agreement between Presidents Putin and Erdogan in Sochi in March 2020 and between the Turkish leader and Donald Trump in November 2019. “The Russians told us that they would not allow the Turkish army to attack, but the Turks could do it with their Syrian National Army (SNA) clients. We were told that Syrian militants could carry out a military operation on November 5, but, as you can see, nothing happened. This indicates that the balance of power in the north (Syria) has changed. " The military leader of the Syrian Kurds expressed the idea that Recep Tayyip Erdogan s alarmism was largely caused by his internal political and economic problems. The economic situation in Turkey is constantly deteriorating, and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is losing popularity. In these conditions, Erdogan, in his opinion, needs a "small victorious war" in order to again attract the electorate to his side.
The question of the SDF s relationship with the central government in Damascus is very sensitive. Kurds have denied rumors that the SDF delegation will visit the Syrian capital for negotiations. According to the Kurdish leaders, the main obstacle to such negotiations is the inflexible and uncompromising policy of the Syrian authorities. “Damascus is not ready for such an agreement. No matter how much they say that there is no return to the times before 2011, they retain the old thinking. They do not tell us to sever ties with the Americans, they simply declare: "We will not allow a state within a state´-or-an army in an army." But we do not have such requirements. We want to live in a unified Syrian state with the rights of autonomy. "
The SDF praised Russia s role in northern Syria and expressed the hope that Moscow could encourage Damascus to conclude an agreement with the SDF. The Kurdish politician stated: “We have good relations with Russia. Over the past two years, we have been cooperating within the framework of Sochi agreement. This problem cannot be solved without Russia. I am convinced that Russia can be more active and put more pressure on the regime. "
Thus, Russia continues to be a "stake holder" in northeastern Syria, maintaining good relations with the Syrian Kurds and enjoying their confidence. In the event that Russian diplomacy activates in this -dir-ection, the return of the northeast of the SAR under the control of the Syrian government is possible, provided that Damascus recognizes the autonomy of the Kurds.

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