Iraq after the withdrawal of American forces

The withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has become an inescapable reality. It will take place today or tomorrow. Whether the American administration chooses this decision or not , it will happen. American public opinion is increasingly applying pressure to withdraw from Iraq and it is almost impossible to imagine that this would not occur prior to the end of President Bush s term. At the very least, the withdrawal will be scheduled before he leaves office.

An important question is the following .. What is the future of Iraq after American forces are withdrawn?

I think that the situation in Iraq will worsen and there will be more chaos for several reasons : First, fear from neighboring states, particularly Saudi Arabia. The emergence of a democratic future could effect the fortunes of the Al Saud. Second, Iran s insistence on control of power in Iraq, especially after the Iraqi Shiite took power in Bagdhad. Third, is the possibility of Turkish intervention in the internal affairs of Iraq in order to prevent a Kurdish entity on the Turkish border. Fourth, the alliance between Al Qaeda and the remnants of the Baath followers to avenge the Americans who destroyed the strength of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and to avenge the Shiites in Iraq who seized power from the Sunni. What is the solution, if, in the light of such a tragic picture a promising solution is not identified that can preserve the unity of Iraq as one country and preserve the blood of its citizens?

I think that the solution lies in two major points : first, the Arab countries, especially Egypt and Syria should send their forces to replace those American forces who are withdrawn. They must ensure a strength parallel to a hundred thousand troops in order to impose security and train the new Iraqi army. The Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, should finance the presence of these forces for a period of at least three years or until Iraq is stabilized.

The second is to put the presidential and parliamentary elections under the supervision of the international community represented by the United Nations. This new system should initiate the development and concept of laws that will determine the future of Iraq, federal and otherwise.

I believe that any failure in Iraq along with the other six countries brings substantial risks including the proliferation of new waves of violence and terrorism. This is especially true after the Al-Qaida found sympathy and provided substantial logistical support in the territory of Iraq. This would result in a serious regional imbalance after an American exit from Iraq. Finally, the increasing Iranian influence and ambitions in the region will lead to conflict between Iran, and Egypt and Saudi Arabia. I think that military forces in the region will be primarily Arab and Muslim. They would have acceptance from the Iraqi people, especially because they would not be an occupying force, but would be trained and maintain security. It should be noted that the Egyptian Administration refused to send any troops to Iraq because of the presence of American forces in Iraq. While they did not explicitly announce that this was the case, President Mubarak might give the matter serious consideration after the American withdrawal. This then could influence Egyptian public opinion.

This decision, to provide regional forces in Iraq will be acceptable to people in Egypt. Egypt is in dire need of restoring its once strong leadership role in the Arab countries. Saudi Arabia is able to support this. The international community is also prepared to take such a step.

That issue is not about any mistakes made by the United States. The need is there to make the case for Iraq and others in the region to take responsibility for themselves. If we don t make this decision, Iraq will dissentegrate and we will experience an increase in terrorist activities in the Middle East, and in other areas of the world.

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