Mohamed Ibrahim Bassyouni
2020 / 4 / 6
In epidemiology and its prevalence, the primary reproductive number of infection can be considered as the expected number of cases -dir-ectly caused by one case in a population where all individuals are at risk of infection. The definition describes a situation in which no other individuals are infectedŽ-or-immune.
As I followed a number of new medical research reports on the prevalence of COVID19, I noticed an inaccurate use of (RQ) basic reproduction number. Use RQ to judge the rapid spread of an infectious diseaseŽ-or-to predict the end time of an epidemic. The RQ number for an infectious disease is the average number of "second" cases resulting from one person getting sick. It has uses, but the main use of RQ is to know the percentage of immunity required from a specific community to eliminate an infectious disease-;- either through vaccinationŽ-or-infection if the infection gains immunity. So by RQ the "herd immunity" strategy that the British Prime Minister stated before it was retracted was identified. It means that the infection of about 60% of the British population with the new Corona will be enough to eliminate it.
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